Silver
A weekly model on silver — the most aggressive strategy in the collection. It holds silver when conditions favor it and moves to cash to soften the metal's severe declines.
For this audience, drawdown carries equal weight to return. The study’s stated maximum drawdown is −37.15%, measured on daily closes; the chart above plots the month-end series, whose deepest decline is −27.63%. The benchmark’s worst case was far deeper.
This is the deepest drawdown of any model here — and we show it plainly. A −37.15% worst case is significant; the point is that buy-and-hold silver investors lived through nearly −70% over the same span.
A drawdown curve shows the shape of risk; this shows its worst individual moments. These are the ten months the benchmark fell hardest — the months a client remembers — and what the model did while it happened. Because the decision is weekly rather than monthly, the model can finish a falling month higher than the benchmark.
The most aggressive strategy — shown honestly.
This is the most aggressive strategy in the collection, applying the systematic approach to silver. Each week it decides whether to hold silver (via the SLV ETF) or move to cash, staying invested in favorable conditions and stepping aside during major declines.
Silver offers some of the highest return potential of any asset here, but also the deepest drawdowns — and the model reflects that: its returns are strong, but its risk profile is meaningfully higher than the other strategies. It is best suited to investors with a higher tolerance for volatility who want systematic exposure to a high-octane, diversifying asset. Its worst-case drawdown, while large in absolute terms, is roughly half what buy-and-hold silver investors experienced.
Note: because the SLV ETF launched in mid-2006, this model's track record begins then — a 20-year hypothetical history rather than the longer record of the equity and fixed-income models.
Everything an auditor would ask for.
Sharpe and Sortino are annualized on a single return frequency — monthly mean and monthly standard deviation, both scaled to annual — net of a 3% risk-free rate. Because the numerator is the arithmetic annualized return, these ratios are not reproducible from the geometric annualized return shown above. Batting average is the share of positive months and is not annualized. Ratios are computed on the record through 31 August 2026; the annualized return and maximum drawdown above are the figures stated in the source study, which ends 29 May 2026.
All performance shown is hypothetical and back-tested — it does not reflect actual trading with client assets and has inherent limitations (designed with the benefit of hindsight; may not reflect the impact of real market conditions). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Results are gross of fees; transaction / custodial fees and taxes are not reflected and would reduce results. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any investment. Charts use representative illustrative data; final disclaimer wording to be confirmed with counsel / compliance.
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